Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or higher on November 6?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $353 held · ended Nov 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$352.78

Combined PnL

$437.77

Smart Money Entry

35.6¢ → 99.6¢

+180% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$352.44

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$440.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.33

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$2.45

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 12.5¢	$76.26	$258.75	+$440.02	38% 1235-2012 (3247)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$48.66	$48.89	+$0.23	53% 23817-20965 (44782)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.9	$19.9	-$0	52% 31052-29024 (60076)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$59.27	$14.94	-$0.02	38% 2400-3836 (6236)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$9.96	$9.96	-$0	26% 7359-21128 (28487)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$1.45	$0.19	-$1.78	40% 853-1286 (2139)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$0.78	$0.11	-$0.67	19% 2916-12361 (15277)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$25.09	$0.02	-$0.01	35% 1152-2096 (3248)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$76.26

Value

$258.75

PnL

+$440.02

Record

38%

1235-2012 (3247)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$48.66

Value

$48.89

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

23817-20965 (44782)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$19.9

Value

$19.9

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

31052-29024 (60076)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$59.27

Value

$14.94

PnL

-$0.02

Record

38%

2400-3836 (6236)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$9.96

PnL

-$0

Record

26%

7359-21128 (28487)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$1.78

Record

40%

853-1286 (2139)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.67

Record

19%

2916-12361 (15277)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.09

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.01

Record

35%

1152-2096 (3248)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.