Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 15?

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $147 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$147.31

Combined PnL

-$13.03

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$147.03

Total Shares147

Combined PnL+$0.69

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.27

Total Shares136

Combined PnL-$13.71

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99¢	$79.2	$79.91	+$0.71	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$22.71	$22.68	-$0.02	58% 864-619 (1483)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.96	$11.89	-$0.07	57% 836-638 (1474)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.02	$10.01	-$0.01	51% 945-892 (1837)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$9.91	$9.99	+$0.08	34% 352-671 (1023)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.16	$5.16	-$0.01	49% 854-884 (1738)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5	$5	+$0.01	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.38	$2.38	+$0	52% 909-844 (1753)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.88	$0.09	-$10.64	29% 308-740 (1048)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.06	$0.06	+$0	47% 887-1007 (1894)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.82	$0.04	-$1.78	42% 5212-7125 (12337)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0	60% 874-593 (1467)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.6	$0.02	-$0.58	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.06	$0.02	-$0.04	41% 276-405 (681)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.01	-$0.45	40% 2676-3963 (6639)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.24	$0.01	-$0.23	28% 3298-8406 (11704)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.2

Value

$79.91

PnL

+$0.71

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$22.71

Value

$22.68

PnL

-$0.02

Record

58%

864-619 (1483)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$11.96

Value

$11.89

PnL

-$0.07

Record

57%

836-638 (1474)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

$10.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

51%

945-892 (1837)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.91

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.08

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

854-884 (1738)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.38

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

909-844 (1753)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.88

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$10.64

Record

29%

308-740 (1048)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.06

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

887-1007 (1894)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.78

Record

42%

5212-7125 (12337)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

874-593 (1467)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.04

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

40%

2676-3963 (6639)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.23

Record

28%

3298-8406 (11704)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.