Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 15?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 49¢ · $268 held · ends Nov 15

Yes51¢No49¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$267.83

Combined PnL

$86.66

Smart Money Entry

42.5¢ → 48.7¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$251.1

Total Shares547

Combined PnL+$80.04

Yes4 traders

Total Value$16.73

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$6.62

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BilberryCTR	Noavg 40.7¢	$98.59	$111.16	+$12.57	40% 46-69 (115)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$88.6	$93.02	+$4.42	54% 1232-1038 (2270)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 45.6¢	$36.45	$36.71	+$0.26	53% 7331-6407 (13738)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 52.8¢	$5.82	$5.86	+$0.03	71% 917-377 (1294)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$58.77	$5.61	+$61.99	30% 250-582 (832)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 37.9¢	$3.79	$4.59	+$0.8	31% 1097-2456 (3553)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$4.27	$4.53	+$0.26	53% 2078-1852 (3930)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 51.8¢	$77.39	$3.72	+$3.78	42% 754-1062 (1816)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yesavg 55.5¢	$4.65	$2.63	+$2.55	41% 2656-3796 (6452)

BilberryCTR

Invested

$98.59

Value

$111.16

PnL

+$12.57

Record

40%

46-69 (115)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Invested

$88.6

Value

$93.02

PnL

+$4.42

Record

54%

1232-1038 (2270)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$36.45

Value

$36.71

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.82

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$0.03

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

$58.77

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$61.99

Record

30%

250-582 (832)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.59

PnL

+$0.8

Record

31%

1097-2456 (3553)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.26

Record

53%

2078-1852 (3930)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.39

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$3.78

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.65

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$2.55

Record

41%

2656-3796 (6452)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.9%

48.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$96.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

196.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.