Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 14?

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (23%) · Yes at 37¢ · $452 held · ends Nov 14

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 23%

Total Value

$451.93

Combined PnL

$121.7

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 36.8¢

-21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$297.62

Total Shares499

Combined PnL+$61.66

No10 traders

Total Value$154.16

Total Shares302

Combined PnL+$60.04

Yes — 23%No — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 45.7¢	$215.01	$278.04	+$63.04	55% 1212-992 (2204)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 37.7¢	$39.31	$63.77	+$24.46	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 37¢	$61.83	$40.99	-$0.67	40% 650-980 (1630)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 59.2¢	$24.25	$25.89	+$1.64	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 62.2¢	$12.22	$11.61	-$0.61	72% 853-335 (1188)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$18.05	$7.96	-$0.77	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 55.9¢	$6.3	$5.98	-$0.32	59% 724-513 (1237)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 36¢	$24.1	$4.82	+$26.72	43% 5066-6598 (11664)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 65¢	$5.12	$4.44	-$0.68	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.49	$3.33	-$0.16	51% 719-703 (1422)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$4.01	$1.82	+$9.3	29% 3178-7933 (11111)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 69¢	$1.68	$1.6	-$0.08	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$1.69	$1.52	-$0.16	58% 703-515 (1218)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$215.01

Value

$278.04

PnL

+$63.04

Record

55%

1212-992 (2204)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$39.31

Value

$63.77

PnL

+$24.46

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$61.83

Value

$40.99

PnL

-$0.67

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$24.25

Value

$25.89

PnL

+$1.64

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.22

Value

$11.61

PnL

-$0.61

Record

72%

853-335 (1188)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.05

Value

$7.96

PnL

-$0.77

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.98

PnL

-$0.32

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$24.1

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$26.72

Record

43%

5066-6598 (11664)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$0.68

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.33

PnL

-$0.16

Record

51%

719-703 (1422)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.01

Value

$1.82

PnL

+$9.3

Record

29%

3178-7933 (11111)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.68

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$0.16

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 13 top traders (23%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.0%

36.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$156.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

256.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.