Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 14?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 68¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 14

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$258.83

Combined PnL

$2.02

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 68.4¢

-11% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$144.9

Total Shares189

Combined PnL+$2.48

Yes2 traders

Total Value$113.92

Total Shares450

Combined PnL-$0.46

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Haradwaith	Noavg 77.1¢	$107.32	$93.36	-$0.11	31% 157-344 (501)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.5¢	$83.28	$79.94	-$3.34	55% 2277-1842 (4119)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.5¢	$31.1	$33.98	+$2.88	40% 633-964 (1597)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$23.94	$23.65	-$0.28	52% 1661-1516 (3177)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$11.66	$10.98	-$0.67	42% 1624-2283 (3907)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 69.1¢	$23.19	$10.41	+$3.87	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$6.82	$6.5	-$0.32	72% 841-329 (1170)

Haradwaith

Invested

$107.32

Value

$93.36

PnL

-$0.11

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.28

Value

$79.94

PnL

-$3.34

Record

55%

2277-1842 (4119)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.1

Value

$33.98

PnL

+$2.88

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.94

Value

$23.65

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

1661-1516 (3177)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$11.66

Value

$10.98

PnL

-$0.67

Record

42%

1624-2283 (3907)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$23.19

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$3.87

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$0.32

Record

72%

841-329 (1170)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.5%

68.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.