Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 13?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 79¢ · $423 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$422.6
$34.84
68.2¢ → 78.5¢
+15% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 67¢ | $293.21 | $337.1 | +$43.89 | 59% 1019-705 (1724) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 73.7¢ | $69.57 | $61.35 | -$8.22 | 68% 2064-954 (3018) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.59 | $12.99 | -$0.6 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $8.23 | $7.9 | -$0.33 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.15 | $3.25 | +$0.1 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
Invested
$293.21
Value
$337.1
PnL
+$43.89
Record
59%
1019-705 (1724)
Invested
$69.57
Value
$61.35
PnL
-$8.22
Record
68%
2064-954 (3018)
Invested
$13.59
Value
$12.99
PnL
-$0.6
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$8.23
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$0.33
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0.1
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.