Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on November 12?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 85¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$74.35
$2.13
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $29.06 | $25.98 | -$3.08 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $15.6 | $18 | +$2.4 | 52% 5313-4817 (10130) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $16.56 | $16.88 | +$0.31 | 51% 256-247 (503) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $7.3 | $9 | +$1.7 | 28% 2439-6150 (8589) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $4.5 | +$0.8 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
Invested
$29.06
Value
$25.98
PnL
-$3.08
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$18
PnL
+$2.4
Record
52%
5313-4817 (10130)
Invested
$16.56
Value
$16.88
PnL
+$0.31
Record
51%
256-247 (503)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$9
PnL
+$1.7
Record
28%
2439-6150 (8589)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$4.5
PnL
+$0.8
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.