Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $79 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$79.3
-$3
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $49.98 | $49.98 | +$0 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 56.6¢ | $12.73 | $11.48 | -$1.25 | 53% 325-288 (613) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $11.2 | $10.2 | -$1 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $5.6 | $5.1 | -$0.5 | 29% 2516-6167 (8683) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.55 | -$0.25 | 38% 1223-1986 (3209) |
Invested
$49.98
Value
$49.98
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$12.73
Value
$11.48
PnL
-$1.25
Record
53%
325-288 (613)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$10.2
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
5381-4862 (10243)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.5
Record
29%
2516-6167 (8683)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.25
Record
38%
1223-1986 (3209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.