Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 76¢ · $328 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$327.88
$22.33
70.5¢ → 75.7¢
+7% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $190.44 | $217.65 | +$27.21 | 61% 1144-746 (1890) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $83.16 | $81.79 | -$1.37 | 69% 2060-944 (3004) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $14.4 | $15.15 | +$0.75 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $7.5 | $7.57 | +$0.07 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.79 | +$0.19 | 38% 1192-1980 (3172) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $17.01 | $1.94 | -$4.51 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$190.44
Value
$217.65
PnL
+$27.21
Record
61%
1144-746 (1890)
Invested
$83.16
Value
$81.79
PnL
-$1.37
Record
69%
2060-944 (3004)
Invested
$14.4
Value
$15.15
PnL
+$0.75
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$7.5
Value
$7.57
PnL
+$0.07
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.79
PnL
+$0.19
Record
38%
1192-1980 (3172)
Invested
$17.01
Value
$1.94
PnL
-$4.51
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.