Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$125.87
$0.05
99.6¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 48%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.91 | -$0 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.9 | -$0.01 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $25.33 | $25.32 | -$0.01 | 47% 353-400 (753) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.94 | +$0.04 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $18.14 | $18.18 | +$0.04 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $2.63 | $2.63 | -$0 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.91
PnL
-$0
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.9
PnL
-$0.01
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Invested
$25.33
Value
$25.32
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
353-400 (753)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.94
PnL
+$0.04
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.14
Value
$18.18
PnL
+$0.04
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$2.63
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.