Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $168 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$168.09
-$0.08
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.88 | -$0.04 | 99% 335-2 (337) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 27% 105-283 (388) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.96 | -$0.01 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.97 | -$0.01 | 38% 3295-5393 (8688) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.7 | $5.7 | -$0 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $2.63 | $2.63 | -$0 | 31% 2801-6226 (9027) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.88
PnL
-$0.04
Record
99%
335-2 (337)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
27%
105-283 (388)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.97
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
3295-5393 (8688)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$5.7
PnL
-$0
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$2.63
Value
$2.63
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
2801-6226 (9027)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.