Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C or below on November 12?

1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (13%) · No at 100¢ · $118 held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 13%

Total Value

$118.1

Combined PnL

-$43.81

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$114.08

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$0.81

Yes7 traders

Total Value$4.02

Total Shares502

Combined PnL-$43

No — 13%Yes — 87%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$114.89	$114.08	-$0.81	99% 398-3 (401)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20.23	$1.78	-$18.45	61% 1153-751 (1904)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.02	$0.79	-$8.23	40% 1466-2159 (3625)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.91	$0.7	-$7.21	67% 435-211 (646)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.48	$0.22	-$2.72	39% 3421-5409 (8830)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.27	$0.2	-$2.98	32% 2924-6249 (9173)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.09	$0.18	-$1.91	82% 69-15 (84)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.66	$0.15	-$1.51	51% 4781-4575 (9356)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$114.89

Value

$114.08

PnL

-$0.81

Record

99%

398-3 (401)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.23

Value

$1.78

PnL

-$18.45

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.02

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$8.23

Record

40%

1466-2159 (3625)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.91

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$7.21

Record

67%

435-211 (646)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.48

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$2.72

Record

39%

3421-5409 (8830)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.27

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$2.98

Record

32%

2924-6249 (9173)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.09

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$1.91

Record

82%

69-15 (84)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$1.51

Record

51%

4781-4575 (9356)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 8 top traders (13%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.