Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or higher on November 12?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $717 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$716.63
-$0.7
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $599.4 | $598.8 | -$0.6 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.88 | -$0.06 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.38 | $25.36 | -$0.03 | 48% 337-362 (699) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.98 | -$0 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.62 | $12.61 | -$0.01 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$599.4
Value
$598.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.88
PnL
-$0.06
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$25.38
Value
$25.36
PnL
-$0.03
Record
48%
337-362 (699)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.98
PnL
-$0
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$12.62
Value
$12.61
PnL
-$0.01
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.