Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on November 12?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $218 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$217.61
-$0.17
99.9¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $79.92 | $79.84 | -$0.08 | 99% 268-2 (270) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.94 | -$0.03 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.97 | $29.94 | -$0.03 | 40% 1455-2158 (3613) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $25.38 | $25.36 | -$0.03 | 43% 383-513 (896) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.96 | -$0.02 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.96 | $19.96 | -$0 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $12.6 | $12.61 | +$0.01 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$79.92
Value
$79.84
PnL
-$0.08
Record
99%
268-2 (270)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.94
PnL
-$0.03
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$29.97
Value
$29.94
PnL
-$0.03
Record
40%
1455-2158 (3613)
Invested
$25.38
Value
$25.36
PnL
-$0.03
Record
43%
383-513 (896)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.96
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.96
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$12.61
PnL
+$0.01
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.