Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $76 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$76.09
-$1.33
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $19.78 | $19.34 | -$0.44 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $19.34 | $19.11 | -$0.23 | 36% 3038-5350 (8388) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $17.61 | $17.42 | -$0.19 | 50% 4568-4480 (9048) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $9.67 | -$0.23 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.3¢ | $5.84 | $5.71 | -$0.13 | 53% 346-302 (648) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $4.95 | $4.84 | -$0.11 | 38% 1226-1987 (3213) |
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.34
PnL
-$0.44
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.34
Value
$19.11
PnL
-$0.23
Record
36%
3038-5350 (8388)
balthazar<$100Invested
$17.61
Value
$17.42
PnL
-$0.19
Record
50%
4568-4480 (9048)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$9.67
PnL
-$0.23
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
Invested
$5.84
Value
$5.71
PnL
-$0.13
Record
53%
346-302 (648)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.84
PnL
-$0.11
Record
38%
1226-1987 (3213)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.