Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$232.49

Combined PnL

$0.13

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$232.48

Total Shares233

Combined PnL+$0.13

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KupaKeepKlan	Noavg 99.9¢	$163.53	$163.61	+$0.08	100% 45-0 (45)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$43.36	$43.39	+$0.02	48% 337-362 (699)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$10	+$0.01	79% 375-99 (474)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.98	$5.99	+$0.01	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.05	$5.06	+$0	47% 353-400 (753)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 268-2 (270)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.94	$1.94	+$0	43% 383-513 (896)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	54% 553-471 (1024)

KupaKeepKlan

Invested

$163.53

Value

$163.61

PnL

+$0.08

Record

100%

45-0 (45)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$43.36

Value

$43.39

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

337-362 (699)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

79%

375-99 (474)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$5.98

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

353-400 (753)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

268-2 (270)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$1.94

Value

$1.94

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

383-513 (896)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.