Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on November 11?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 100¢ · $96 held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$95.74

Combined PnL

$0.54

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$95.73

Total Shares96

Combined PnL+$0.76

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.01

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.22

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$39.5	$39.96	+$0.46	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$16.16	$16.16	+$0	47% 353-400 (753)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$10.25	$10.27	+$0.02	41% 688-988 (1676)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.97	$9.99	+$0.02	79% 375-99 (474)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$7.76	$7.81	+$0.05	42% 370-503 (873)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$5.89	$5.99	+$0.1	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$5.43	$5.54	+$0.11	54% 553-471 (1024)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$0.23	$0.01	-$0.22	45% 374-466 (840)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.5

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.46

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$16.16

Value

$16.16

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

353-400 (753)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.27

PnL

+$0.02

Record

41%

688-988 (1676)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.97

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

79%

375-99 (474)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$0.05

Record

42%

370-503 (873)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$5.89

Value

$5.99

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.23

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.22

Record

45%

374-466 (840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.