Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on November 11?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 91¢ · $198 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$197.53
$13.06
86.2¢ → 90.5¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 85.9¢ | $147.8 | $158.24 | +$10.44 | 24% 163-516 (679) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $18.4 | $18.1 | -$0.3 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $9.64 | $10.69 | +$1.05 | 85% 441-76 (517) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $5.22 | $5.52 | +$0.3 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 77.4¢ | $11.16 | $4.98 | +$1.57 | 51% 263-254 (517) |
Invested
$147.8
Value
$158.24
PnL
+$10.44
Record
24%
163-516 (679)
Invested
$18.4
Value
$18.1
PnL
-$0.3
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$9.64
Value
$10.69
PnL
+$1.05
Record
85%
441-76 (517)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$5.52
PnL
+$0.3
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$11.16
Value
$4.98
PnL
+$1.57
Record
51%
263-254 (517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.