Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 48¢ · $224 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$223.9
$6.46
52.4¢ → 47.5¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67CTR | Noavg 52.3¢ | $106.35 | $109.79 | +$3.44 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $77.74 | $80.46 | +$2.72 | 30% 246-584 (830) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.5¢ | $22.01 | $21.83 | -$0.18 | 53% 5552-4939 (10491) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $4.8 | -$0.1 | 82% 516-115 (631) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $3.5 | $3.78 | +$0.28 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $2.94 | $3.24 | +$0.3 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
Invested
$106.35
Value
$109.79
PnL
+$3.44
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
Invested
$77.74
Value
$80.46
PnL
+$2.72
Record
30%
246-584 (830)
Invested
$22.01
Value
$21.83
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
5552-4939 (10491)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.1
Record
82%
516-115 (631)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.28
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$2.94
Value
$3.24
PnL
+$0.3
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.