Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C on November 11?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 28¢ · $211 held · ends Nov 11

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$211.01

Combined PnL

-$33.1

Smart Money Entry

33¢ → 27.5¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$171.51

Total Shares618

Combined PnL-$32.29

No4 traders

Total Value$39.5

Total Shares65

Combined PnL-$0.81

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.3¢	$97.46	$85.54	-$11.92	30% 256-590 (846)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.2¢	$61.22	$51.61	-$9.61	59% 1019-705 (1724)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 36.6¢	$41.81	$31.98	-$9.83	68% 2062-949 (3011)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$24.6	$24.4	-$0.2	53% 5575-4959 (10534)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 62¢	$9.98	$9.81	-$0.16	81% 525-121 (646)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 68¢	$4.08	$3.66	-$0.42	30% 2654-6198 (8852)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$3.31	$2.38	-$0.93	54% 445-377 (822)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.65	$1.62	-$0.03	46% 317-371 (688)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.46

Value

$85.54

PnL

-$11.92

Record

30%

256-590 (846)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.22

Value

$51.61

PnL

-$9.61

Record

59%

1019-705 (1724)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.81

Value

$31.98

PnL

-$9.83

Record

68%

2062-949 (3011)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$24.6

Value

$24.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

53%

5575-4959 (10534)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.81

PnL

-$0.16

Record

81%

525-121 (646)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$0.42

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.31

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.93

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

317-371 (688)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.