Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 2°C on November 11?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $56 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$55.86
-$3.82
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $38 | $37.6 | -$0.4 | 53% 5511-4919 (10430) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $8.72 | $8.6 | -$0.12 | 54% 383-321 (704) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $5.76 | $5.39 | -$0.37 | 30% 2617-6186 (8803) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $3.6 | $2.48 | -$1.12 | 29% 237-575 (812) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $3.6 | $1.79 | -$1.81 | 69% 2062-948 (3010) |
Invested
$38
Value
$37.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
5511-4919 (10430)
Invested
$8.72
Value
$8.6
PnL
-$0.12
Record
54%
383-321 (704)
Invested
$5.76
Value
$5.39
PnL
-$0.37
Record
30%
2617-6186 (8803)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$1.12
Record
29%
237-575 (812)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$1.81
Record
69%
2062-948 (3010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.