Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on November 10?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $21 held · ends Nov 10

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$20.78

Combined PnL

$1.58

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$18.39

Total Shares19

Combined PnL-$0.77

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.39

Total Shares16

Combined PnL+$2.35

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.45	$10.44	-$0.01	79% 159-42 (201)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.22	$5.18	-$0.03	36% 509-900 (1409)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.5	$2.77	-$0.73	100% 94-0 (94)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$1.08	+$1.07	36% 176-307 (483)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$1.07	+$1.06	52% 247-230 (477)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0	$0.23	+$0.23	30% 177-414 (591)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	31% 196-433 (629)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$10.45

Value

$10.44

PnL

-$0.01

Record

79%

159-42 (201)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

36%

509-900 (1409)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$2.77

PnL

-$0.73

Record

100%

94-0 (94)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$1.07

Record

36%

176-307 (483)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$1.07

PnL

+$1.06

Record

52%

247-230 (477)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$0.23

Record

30%

177-414 (591)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

31%

196-433 (629)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.