Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 4°C on November 10?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 86¢ · $413 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$412.78
$46.42
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 61¢ | $332.53 | $380.91 | +$48.38 | 23% 149-503 (652) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $21.49 | $14 | -$7.49 | 88% 434-59 (493) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $6.8 | $7.4 | +$0.6 | 16% 10-52 (62) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $18.66 | $7.13 | +$3.76 | 52% 244-227 (471) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $2.17 | $3.34 | +$1.18 | 30% 175-412 (587) |
Invested
$332.53
Value
$380.91
PnL
+$48.38
Record
23%
149-503 (652)
Invested
$21.49
Value
$14
PnL
-$7.49
Record
88%
434-59 (493)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
$7.4
PnL
+$0.6
Record
16%
10-52 (62)
Invested
$18.66
Value
$7.13
PnL
+$3.76
Record
52%
244-227 (471)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$3.34
PnL
+$1.18
Record
30%
175-412 (587)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.