Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C on November 10?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 72¢ · $287 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$287.15
-$8.93
76¢ → 72¢
-5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 72%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 77¢ | $146.65 | $137.13 | -$9.52 | 2% 12-662 (674) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $128.75 | $128.46 | -$0.29 | 21% 132-485 (617) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $72.41 | $65.82 | -$6.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.8¢ | $56.34 | $62.64 | +$6.3 | |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $11.49 | $11.65 | +$0.16 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 68.9¢ | $9.48 | $9.91 | +$0.43 | 89% 409-53 (462) |
Invested
$146.65
Value
$137.13
PnL
-$9.52
Record
2%
12-662 (674)
Invested
$128.75
Value
$128.46
PnL
-$0.29
Record
21%
132-485 (617)
Both legs:
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$11.49
Value
$11.65
PnL
+$0.16
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$9.48
Value
$9.91
PnL
+$0.43
Record
89%
409-53 (462)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.