Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 31?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 52¢ · $553 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$553
$147.66
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $294.4 | $433.67 | +$147.61 | 47% 658-738 (1396) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $154.27 | $116.93 | -$5.1 | 20% 309-1228 (1537) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.1¢ | $45.75 | $60.81 | +$14.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.5¢ | $74.23 | $56.13 | -$19.6 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.4 | +$0.05 | 59% 1784-1235 (3019) |
Invested
$294.4
Value
$433.67
PnL
+$147.61
Record
47%
658-738 (1396)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$154.27
Value
$116.93
PnL
-$5.1
Record
20%
309-1228 (1537)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
1784-1235 (3019)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.