Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 30?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 74¢ · $360 held · ends Oct 30

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$360.36

Combined PnL

$14.65

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 73.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$217.32

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$14.7

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.92

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0.05

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 30.4¢	$182.33	$142.12	-$36.64	59% 1714-1183 (2897)
└ No leg	Noavg 78¢	$79.56	$84.66	+$8.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.4¢	$102.77	$57.46	-$45.31
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 70¢	$86.94	$90.67	+$3.73	47% 628-714 (1342)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 73.6¢	$76.06	$85.76	+$9.7	50% 1747-1730 (3477)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 62.8¢	$31.35	$31.07	-$0.11	21% 295-1086 (1381)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 76.9¢	$30.2	$9.83	+$1.38	57% 13509-10335 (23844)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$0.97	$0.92	-$0.05	53% 6459-5657 (12116)

241532532432ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$182.33

Value

$142.12

PnL

-$36.64

Record

59%

1714-1183 (2897)

Both legs:

No$79.5678¢+$8.67

Yes$102.7730.4¢-$45.31

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$86.94

Value

$90.67

PnL

+$3.73

Record

47%

628-714 (1342)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$76.06

Value

$85.76

PnL

+$9.7

Record

50%

1747-1730 (3477)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$31.35

Value

$31.07

PnL

-$0.11

Record

21%

295-1086 (1381)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$30.2

Value

$9.83

PnL

+$1.38

Record

57%

13509-10335 (23844)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

6459-5657 (12116)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.