Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on October 30?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 65¢ · $161 held · ends Oct 30

Yes35¢No65¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$160.81

Combined PnL

-$26.77

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$47.92

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$5.03

Yes2 traders

Total Value$38.08

Total Shares206

Combined PnL-$31.8

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 65¢	$75.54	$74.81	+$0.51	23% 287-958 (1245)
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$48.63	$48.25	-$0.37
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.3¢	$25.63	$26.56	+$0.88
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 70¢	$34.79	$40.51	+$5.72	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.3¢	$68.87	$37.15	-$31.72	62% 1435-880 (2315)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.1	$7.42	-$0.68	57% 13341-10198 (23539)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$1	$0.93	-$0.08	47% 615-700 (1315)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$75.54

Value

$74.81

PnL

+$0.51

Record

23%

287-958 (1245)

Both legs:

No$48.6365¢-$0.37

Yes$25.6334.3¢+$0.88

hello.67<$100

Invested

$34.79

Value

$40.51

PnL

+$5.72

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.87

Value

$37.15

PnL

-$31.72

Record

62%

1435-880 (2315)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$8.1

Value

$7.42

PnL

-$0.68

Record

57%

13341-10198 (23539)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.08

Record

47%

615-700 (1315)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.1%

65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$48.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

149.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.