Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on October 29?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 87¢ · $514 held · ended Oct 29

Yes13¢No87¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

Total Value

$514.09

Combined PnL

$13.19

Smart Money Entry

86.7¢ → 87¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$499.26

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$14.57

Yes1 trader

Total Value$14.82

Total Shares87

Combined PnL-$1.38

No — 88%Yes — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 87.5¢	$191.24	$181.3	-$2.34	60% 1670-1125 (2795)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 89¢	$160.18	$166.48	+$6.3	55% 324-260 (584)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$59.6	$69.38	+$9.77	47% 615-701 (1316)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 85¢	$50.5	$50	-$0.5	23% 288-962 (1250)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.4¢	$18.6	$19.24	+$0.64	57% 13342-10199 (23541)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.6¢	$16.21	$14.82	-$1.38	53% 6405-5609 (12014)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.17	$8.89	+$0.72	50% 1704-1692 (3396)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$3.98	-$0.02	0% 0-28 (28)

241532532432

Invested

$191.24

Value

$181.3

PnL

-$2.34

Record

60%

1670-1125 (2795)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$160.18

Value

$166.48

PnL

+$6.3

Record

55%

324-260 (584)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$59.6

Value

$69.38

PnL

+$9.77

Record

47%

615-701 (1316)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$0.5

Record

23%

288-962 (1250)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.6

Value

$19.24

PnL

+$0.64

Record

57%

13342-10199 (23541)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.21

Value

$14.82

PnL

-$1.38

Record

53%

6405-5609 (12014)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$8.17

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$0.72

Record

50%

1704-1692 (3396)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

Value

$3.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

0-28 (28)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.