Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on November 9?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $167 held · ended Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$166.53

Combined PnL

$24.43

Smart Money Entry

69.9¢ → 99.5¢

+42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$147.11

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$36.94

Yes3 traders

Total Value$19.42

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$12.51

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 78.5¢	$31.4	$39.78	+$8.38	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 59.7¢	$25.69	$32.26	+$6.57	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$10.53	$19.89	+$9.36	35% 138-259 (397)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$17.61	$19.88	+$2.27	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.8¢	$22.1	$19.21	-$2.89	21% 132-485 (617)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 61.5¢	$6.8	$10.24	+$3.44	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 71.5¢	$7.15	$9.95	+$2.8	36% 462-806 (1268)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 68¢	$6.63	$9.7	+$3.07	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 85¢	$3.3	$3.86	+$0.56	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 68¢	$1.07	$1.56	+$0.49	31% 163-361 (524)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.2¢	$4.8	$0.14	-$4.66	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.7¢	$5.03	$0.07	-$4.96	51% 197-186 (383)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$31.4

Value

$39.78

PnL

+$8.38

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$25.69

Value

$32.26

PnL

+$6.57

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$9.36

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.61

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$2.27

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.1

Value

$19.21

PnL

-$2.89

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$3.44

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$9.95

PnL

+$2.8

Record

36%

462-806 (1268)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$6.63

Value

$9.7

PnL

+$3.07

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.56

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.49

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$4.66

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.03

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$4.96

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.