Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 9 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 9?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 0.7¢ · $49 held · ended Nov 9

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$49.15

Combined PnL

-$129.81

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 0.7¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$48.27

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$18.69

No9 traders

Total Value$0.88

Total Shares135

Combined PnL-$111.11

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 91.7¢	$45.43	$29.13	-$16.3	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Yesavg 90.2¢	$7.23	$7.97	+$0.73	28% 153-400 (553)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Yesavg 90.2¢	$5.48	$6.04	+$0.56	31% 163-361 (524)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 94.4¢	$8.81	$5.13	-$3.68	30% 174-414 (588)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$38.99	$0.26	-$38.73	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$32.24	$0.22	-$32.02	21% 132-485 (617)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 13.1¢	$2.62	$0.13	-$2.49	51% 4240-4094 (8334)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$49.57	$0.06	-$18.55	51% 197-186 (383)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$9.41	$0.06	-$9.35	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$3.2	$0.05	-$3.15	34% 150-294 (444)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 39.2¢	$2.63	$0.04	-$2.59	35% 138-259 (397)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$3.79	$0.03	-$3.76	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$0.5	$0.02	-$0.48	67% 3785-1901 (5686)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.43

Value

$29.13

PnL

-$16.3

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.23

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$0.73

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.48

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.56

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.81

Value

$5.13

PnL

-$3.68

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$38.99

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$38.73

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$32.24

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$32.02

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$2.62

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2.49

Record

51%

4240-4094 (8334)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$49.57

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$18.55

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.41

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$9.35

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$3.15

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.63

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.59

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.76

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.48

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.7%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5676.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

5776.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.