Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on November 9?

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (31%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $216 held · ended Nov 9

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 31%

Total Value

$216.17

Combined PnL

$7.37

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 0.4¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$191.47

Total Shares191

Combined PnL+$126.5

Yes4 traders

Total Value$24.7

Total Shares280

Combined PnL-$119.14

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 42.5¢	$93.8	$84.22	+$65.35	21% 132-485 (617)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 32.9¢	$11.52	$35	+$23.48	37% 2788-4826 (7614)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Yesavg 55.9¢	$30.25	$21.91	-$8.35	89% 409-53 (462)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 87¢	$17.75	$20.1	+$2.35	30% 174-414 (588)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 34.1¢	$11.23	$18.47	+$20.24	51% 197-186 (383)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$6.92	$10.21	+$3.29	28% 153-400 (553)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 44¢	$4.29	$9.74	+$5.45	52% 5134-4698 (9832)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 42¢	$2.12	$5.04	+$2.92	35% 138-259 (397)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.18	$4.81	+$0.62	34% 150-294 (444)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 28¢	$1.09	$3.88	+$2.79	30% 2360-5638 (7998)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$3.49	$1.86	-$1.38	67% 3785-1901 (5686)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$110.21	$0.9	-$109.31	2% 12-662 (674)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.12	$0.03	-$0.1	31% 163-361 (524)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$93.8

Value

$84.22

PnL

+$65.35

Record

21%

132-485 (617)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$11.52

Value

$35

PnL

+$23.48

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.25

Value

$21.91

PnL

-$8.35

Record

89%

409-53 (462)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$17.75

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$2.35

Record

30%

174-414 (588)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.23

Value

$18.47

PnL

+$20.24

Record

51%

197-186 (383)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.92

Value

$10.21

PnL

+$3.29

Record

28%

153-400 (553)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$4.29

Value

$9.74

PnL

+$5.45

Record

52%

5134-4698 (9832)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$5.04

PnL

+$2.92

Record

35%

138-259 (397)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.18

Value

$4.81

PnL

+$0.62

Record

34%

150-294 (444)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$1.09

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$2.79

Record

30%

2360-5638 (7998)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.49

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$1.38

Record

67%

3785-1901 (5686)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$110.21

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$109.31

Record

12-662 (674)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.1

Record

31%

163-361 (524)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 13 top traders (31%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-9 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6707.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

6807.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.