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NoYesYesYes
balthazarCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or higher on November 8?
Resolved No. 17% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 25%
Total Value
$263.05
Combined PnL
-$37.1
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$263.05
Total Shares263
Combined PnL+$0.26
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares411
Combined PnL-$37.36
No — 17%Yes — 83%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $263.05 | $263.05 | +$0.26 | 97% 59641-1866 (61507) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $32.22 | — | -$32.22 | 20% 977-3819 (4796) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.55 | — | -$4.55 | 50% 21528-21357 (42885) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | -$0.59 | 22% 3396-11845 (15241) |
balthazarCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 30% 35305-83677 (118982) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 2922-6665 (9587) |
1D
1DVSBSTDInvested
$263.05
Value
$263.05
PnL
+$0.26
Record
97%
59641-1866 (61507)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
$32.22
Value
—
PnL
-$32.22
Record
20%
977-3819 (4796)
QU
quietparcelCTR<$100Invested
$4.55
Value
—
PnL
-$4.55
Record
50%
21528-21357 (42885)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
-$0.59
Record
22%
3396-11845 (15241)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
35305-83677 (118982)
12
123987456CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2922-6665 (9587)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x92eb6009...7813a7
Slug
highest-temperature-in-toronto-on-november-8-2026-16corhigher