Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on November 7?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 44¢ · $136 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$135.99
$49.71
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.2¢ | $40.76 | $93.33 | +$52.57 | 56% 781-606 (1387) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $31.21 | $24.85 | -$6.37 | 54% 10730-9241 (19971) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.5¢ | $8.5 | $8.2 | -$0.3 | 13% 589-3865 (4454) |
 Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $4.3 | $8.2 | +$3.9 | 61% 687-436 (1123) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 90.3¢ | $19.51 | $1.41 | -$0.09 | 70% 14140-6050 (20190) |
Invested
$40.76
Value
$93.33
PnL
+$52.57
Record
56%
781-606 (1387)
Invested
$31.21
Value
$24.85
PnL
-$6.37
Record
54%
10730-9241 (19971)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$8.2
PnL
-$0.3
Record
13%
589-3865 (4454)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$3.9
Record
61%
687-436 (1123)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$19.51
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$0.09
Record
70%
14140-6050 (20190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.