Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 7?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $248 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$248.06
-$14
88.1¢ → 91.9¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 86.8¢ | $163.42 | $185.28 | -$12.15 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
BI BilberryCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $35.93 | $33.35 | -$2.58 | 53% 4144-3712 (7856) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $26.24 | $25.07 | -$1.17 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $2.46 | $4.36 | +$1.9 | 32% 2247-4752 (6999) |
Invested
$163.42
Value
$185.28
PnL
-$12.15
Record
37%
903-1557 (2460)
Invested
$35.93
Value
$33.35
PnL
-$2.58
Record
53%
4144-3712 (7856)
Invested
$26.24
Value
$25.07
PnL
-$1.17
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$4.36
PnL
+$1.9
Record
32%
2247-4752 (6999)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.