Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on November 7?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 87¢ · $347 held · ended Nov 7
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Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$346.63
$21.44
73.9¢ → 87¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 74¢ | $201.55 | $236.98 | +$38.11 | 56% 781-606 (1387) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 21.4¢ | $363.72 | $94.46 | -$16.69 | 37% 903-1557 (2460) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $12.56 | $15.19 | +$0.01 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.