Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on November 6?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $381 held · ends Nov 6

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$380.98

Combined PnL

$13.24

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 91.5¢

+17% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$152.46

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$10.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$62.77

Total Shares315

Combined PnL+$2.64

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$212.48	$165.74	+$43.69	40% 846-1253 (2099)
└ No leg	Noavg 76.3¢	$101.92	$118.88	+$16.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.4¢	$3.27	$46.86	+$26.73
Roflan-ludoman<$100	Noavg 77¢	$46.2	$75.65	+$1.15	62% 658-398 (1056)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$46.41	$62.03	+$2.01	53% 4101-3668 (7769)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.4¢	$58.05	$39.94	+$5.65	58% 21328-15480 (36808)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$33.07	$36.87	+$3.8	53% 23775-20945 (44720)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$0.3	$0.56	+$0.6	72% 13920-5521 (19441)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$4.27	$0.17	+$0.03	53% 4531-4033 (8564)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0ARB<$100

Invested

$212.48

Value

$165.74

PnL

+$43.69

Record

40%

846-1253 (2099)

Both legs:

No$101.9276.3¢+$16.96

Yes$3.271.4¢+$26.73

Roflan-ludoman<$100

Invested

$46.2

Value

$75.65

PnL

+$1.15

Record

62%

658-398 (1056)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.41

Value

$62.03

PnL

+$2.01

Record

53%

4101-3668 (7769)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$58.05

Value

$39.94

PnL

+$5.65

Record

58%

21328-15480 (36808)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$33.07

Value

$36.87

PnL

+$3.8

Record

53%

23775-20945 (44720)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.6

Record

72%

13920-5521 (19441)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.27

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

4531-4033 (8564)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.