Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on November 5?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 74¢ · $785 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
1 arb excluded
$784.91
$12.05
75.3¢ → 73.5¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-14 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $269.31 | $274.19 | +$4.88 | 48% 2120-2300 (4420) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 73.9¢ | $204.91 | $216.36 | +$11.46 | 42% 788-1101 (1889) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 77.9¢ | $152.4 | $105 | +$0.08 | 15% 435-2472 (2907) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77.9¢ | $77.94 | $78 | -$11.24 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 25¢ | $25 | $27 | +$11.32 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.6¢ | $76.87 | $66 | -$10.87 | 58% 2456-1793 (4249) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $53.14 | $54.3 | +$1.16 | 60% 11576-7759 (19335) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 75.9¢ | $30.38 | $31.2 | +$0.82 | 53% 28804-25713 (54517) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 72.6¢ | $23.78 | $25.44 | +$1.66 | 53% 9849-8576 (18425) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 69.6¢ | $33.15 | $8.52 | +$2.99 | 58% 18975-13958 (32933) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $20.55 | $3.9 | -$0.05 | 79% 12088-3268 (15356) |
Invested
$269.31
Value
$274.19
PnL
+$4.88
Record
48%
2120-2300 (4420)
Invested
$204.91
Value
$216.36
PnL
+$11.46
Record
42%
788-1101 (1889)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$152.4
Value
$105
PnL
+$0.08
Record
15%
435-2472 (2907)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.87
Value
$66
PnL
-$10.87
Record
58%
2456-1793 (4249)
Invested
$53.14
Value
$54.3
PnL
+$1.16
Record
60%
11576-7759 (19335)
balthazar<$100Invested
$30.38
Value
$31.2
PnL
+$0.82
Record
53%
28804-25713 (54517)
Invested
$23.78
Value
$25.44
PnL
+$1.66
Record
53%
9849-8576 (18425)
Invested
$33.15
Value
$8.52
PnL
+$2.99
Record
58%
18975-13958 (32933)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$20.55
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$0.05
Record
79%
12088-3268 (15356)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.