Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on November 5?

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 52¢ · $828 held · ends Nov 5

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$828.35

Combined PnL

$162.4

Smart Money Entry

30.2¢ → 51.5¢

+70% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$355.89

Total Shares687

Combined PnL+$142.51

No12 traders

Total Value$214.91

Total Shares433

Combined PnL+$19.89

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 30¢	$665.7	$339.51	+$139.76	41% 799-1129 (1928)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 56.1¢	$171.05	$167.46	-$2.44	14% 464-2779 (3243)
└ No leg	Noavg 45.3¢	$75.85	$85.4	+$9.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56.1¢	$93.87	$82.06	-$11.99
PO PoligarchARB<$100	Yesavg 52.3¢	$90.24	$90.09	-$0.16	54% 10041-8677 (18718)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.3¢	$55.68	$57.44	+$1.76
└ No leg	Noavg 48.7¢	$34.56	$32.65	-$1.92
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 50.1¢	$71.58	$72.93	+$1.35	58% 2493-1822 (4315)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Noavg 43.7¢	$32.55	$36.16	+$3.61	47% 8378-9549 (17927)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 47.7¢	$40.99	$31.48	+$0.52	77% 12555-3711 (16266)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 37.4¢	$15.74	$16.39	+$2.74	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$15.07	$15.3	+$0.23	50% 9806-9785 (19591)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$14.7	$14.1	-$0.6	61% 15939-10215 (26154)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$9.46	$9.6	+$0.14	39% 1092-1680 (2772)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 57.4¢	$51.44	$9.4	-$1.2	59% 11849-8194 (20043)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$8.44	$9.26	+$0.81	41% 1185-1677 (2862)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 43.4¢	$4.76	$5.16	+$0.4	40% 2181-3225 (5406)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$4.32	$4.85	+$0.53	46% 10325-12017 (22342)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$36.72	$3.55	+$13.61	53% 29258-26174 (55432)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$2.64	$3.13	+$0.49	39% 1057-1660 (2717)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$665.7

Value

$339.51

PnL

+$139.76

Record

41%

799-1129 (1928)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$171.05

Value

$167.46

PnL

-$2.44

Record

14%

464-2779 (3243)

Both legs:

No$75.8545.3¢+$9.55

Yes$93.8756.1¢-$11.99

PoligarchARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.24

Value

$90.09

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

10041-8677 (18718)

Both legs:

Yes$55.6852.3¢+$1.76

No$34.5648.7¢-$1.92

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$71.58

Value

$72.93

PnL

+$1.35

Record

58%

2493-1822 (4315)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

$32.55

Value

$36.16

PnL

+$3.61

Record

47%

8378-9549 (17927)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$40.99

Value

$31.48

PnL

+$0.52

Record

77%

12555-3711 (16266)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.74

Value

$16.39

PnL

+$2.74

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Invested

$15.07

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

9806-9785 (19591)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$14.1

PnL

-$0.6

Record

61%

15939-10215 (26154)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.14

Record

39%

1092-1680 (2772)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$51.44

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$1.2

Record

59%

11849-8194 (20043)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$8.44

Value

$9.26

PnL

+$0.81

Record

41%

1185-1677 (2862)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0.4

Record

40%

2181-3225 (5406)

god83743894CTR<$100

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.53

Record

46%

10325-12017 (22342)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$36.72

Value

$3.55

PnL

+$13.61

Record

53%

29258-26174 (55432)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$2.64

Value

$3.13

PnL

+$0.49

Record

39%

1057-1660 (2717)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.