Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C or higher on November 3?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 70¢ · $903 held · ended Nov 3

Yes70¢No30¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$903.23

Combined PnL

$204.09

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 70¢

+47% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$672.49

Total Shares964

Combined PnL+$205.7

No1 trader

Total Value$92.02

Total Shares341

Combined PnL-$1.61

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 43.9¢	$334.63	$525.59	+$213.81	44% 754-963 (1717)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 60.7¢	$152.71	$138.72	-$6.67	16% 427-2300 (2727)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.7¢	$87.7	$99.7	+$11.3
└ No leg	Noavg 39.7¢	$57.33	$39.02	-$17.98
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$81.7	$92.02	-$1.61	42% 1832-2514 (4346)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Yesavg 75.9¢	$57.32	$52.14	-$5.18	59% 1689-1189 (2878)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 80.1¢	$36.75	$34.52	+$0.93	53% 9602-8425 (18027)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$3.99	$29.81	-$2.48	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
24 241532532432<$100	Yesavg 72.7¢	$18.17	$17.25	-$0.92	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
HE hello.67<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$10.72	$9.74	-$0.63	48% 2103-2279 (4382)
BI Bilberry<$100	Yesavg 70¢	$3.5	$3.45	+$0.18	53% 3643-3266 (6909)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$334.63

Value

$525.59

PnL

+$213.81

Record

44%

754-963 (1717)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$152.71

Value

$138.72

PnL

-$6.67

Record

16%

427-2300 (2727)

Both legs:

Yes$87.760.7¢+$11.3

No$57.3339.7¢-$17.98

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$81.7

Value

$92.02

PnL

-$1.61

Record

42%

1832-2514 (4346)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.32

Value

$52.14

PnL

-$5.18

Record

59%

1689-1189 (2878)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.75

Value

$34.52

PnL

+$0.93

Record

53%

9602-8425 (18027)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.99

Value

$29.81

PnL

-$2.48

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

241532532432<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.17

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$0.92

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

hello.67<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.72

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$0.63

Record

48%

2103-2279 (4382)

Bilberry<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

3643-3266 (6909)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.