Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on November 3?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$171.7
72.8¢ → 91.5¢
+26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 68.7¢ | $476.32 | $586.31 | +$113.79 | 49% 728-747 (1475) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 79¢ | $360.34 | $410.57 | +$52.51 | 50% 2042-2019 (4061) |
BI Bilberry | Noavg 69.8¢ | $77.47 | $100.42 | +$22.95 | 53% 3389-3008 (6397) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.7¢ | $70.85 | $53.71 | -$17.56 | 42% 1798-2479 (4277) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $5.01 | $5.03 | +$0.03 | 54% 7726-6475 (14201) |
Invested
$476.32
Value
$586.31
PnL
+$113.79
Record
49%
728-747 (1475)
Invested
$360.34
Value
$410.57
PnL
+$52.51
Record
50%
2042-2019 (4061)
Invested
$77.47
Value
$100.42
PnL
+$22.95
Record
53%
3389-3008 (6397)
Invested
$70.85
Value
$53.71
PnL
-$17.56
Record
42%
1798-2479 (4277)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
7726-6475 (14201)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.