Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $37 held · ended Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$37.09

Combined PnL

-$2.63

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$31.38

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$0.26

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.62

Total Shares138

Combined PnL-$2.89

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 95¢	$9.5	$9.88	+$0.38	42% 1711-2334 (4045)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 95¢	$5.06	$5.27	+$0.2	39% 341-544 (885)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99¢	$5	$4.99	-$0.01	99% 1717-24 (1741)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 96.2¢	$4.95	$4.95	-$0.01	47% 930-1053 (1983)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$4.99	$4.79	-$0.19	60% 929-631 (1560)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$5.17	$3.57	-$1.6	43% 848-1138 (1986)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$1.61	$1.5	-$0.11	58% 906-664 (1570)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$1.71	$1.08	-$0.64	48% 1288-1418 (2706)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$1.3	$0.88	-$0.42	56% 882-689 (1571)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.88	$0.09	-$0.24	35% 3944-7368 (11312)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$9.88

PnL

+$0.38

Record

42%

1711-2334 (4045)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$5.06

Value

$5.27

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

341-544 (885)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

99%

1717-24 (1741)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

930-1053 (1983)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.99

Value

$4.79

PnL

-$0.19

Record

60%

929-631 (1560)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.17

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$1.6

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.61

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$0.11

Record

58%

906-664 (1570)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.64

Record

48%

1288-1418 (2706)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.3

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.42

Record

56%

882-689 (1571)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.24

Record

35%

3944-7368 (11312)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.