Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 15?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $100 held · ended Nov 15

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$100.36

Combined PnL

$6.22

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$63.44

Total Shares363

Combined PnL+$8.61

No6 traders

Total Value$36.91

Total Shares48

Combined PnL-$2.39

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$26.67	$32.55	+$5.88	43% 848-1138 (1986)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.7¢	$25.09	$28.02	+$2.93	66% 90-47 (137)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87.7¢	$15.5	$13.78	-$1.71	70% 975-415 (1390)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 75¢	$7.5	$7.8	+$0.3	31% 1134-2479 (3613)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80¢	$7.24	$7.06	-$0.18	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4	$4.16	+$0.16	35% 367-681 (1048)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 79¢	$4.07	$3.3	-$0.77	58% 906-664 (1570)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.34	$2.62	-$1.72	54% 1126-976 (2102)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 78¢	$1	$0.82	-$0.18	60% 929-631 (1560)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.28	$0.25	+$1.51	35% 3944-7368 (11312)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.67

Value

$32.55

PnL

+$5.88

Record

43%

848-1138 (1986)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.09

Value

$28.02

PnL

+$2.93

Record

66%

90-47 (137)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$15.5

Value

$13.78

PnL

-$1.71

Record

70%

975-415 (1390)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

31%

1134-2479 (3613)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.24

Value

$7.06

PnL

-$0.18

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

35%

367-681 (1048)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.07

Value

$3.3

PnL

-$0.77

Record

58%

906-664 (1570)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.34

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$1.72

Record

54%

1126-976 (2102)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$0.18

Record

60%

929-631 (1560)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$1.51

Record

35%

3944-7368 (11312)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

26h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.