Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on November 14?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 90¢ · $112 held · ended Nov 14

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$112.07

Combined PnL

-$13.99

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$86.35

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$15.58

Yes3 traders

Total Value$25.72

Total Shares161

Combined PnL-$29.56

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 56¢	$16.8	$28.2	+$11.4	31% 1057-2405 (3462)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.4¢	$52	$21.12	-$30.88	54% 1111-940 (2051)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 90¢	$12.45	$12.67	+$1.12	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 91¢	$36.4	$9.35	+$0.22	29% 3215-8065 (11280)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 90¢	$8.15	$8.52	+$0.36	49% 798-831 (1629)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90¢	$7.37	$7.7	+$0.33	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 90¢	$7.29	$7.61	+$0.32	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 90¢	$7.28	$7.6	+$0.32	52% 810-753 (1563)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$4.7	+$1.5	35% 290-535 (825)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.52	$2.68	+$1.16	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$9.75	$1.91	+$0.16	41% 711-1031 (1742)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$11.4

Record

31%

1057-2405 (3462)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52

Value

$21.12

PnL

-$30.88

Record

54%

1111-940 (2051)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$12.45

Value

$12.67

PnL

+$1.12

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$36.4

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.22

Record

29%

3215-8065 (11280)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$0.36

Record

49%

798-831 (1629)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.37

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$0.33

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.29

Value

$7.61

PnL

+$0.32

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.6

PnL

+$0.32

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$1.5

Record

35%

290-535 (825)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$1.16

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.75

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.16

Record

41%

711-1031 (1742)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.