Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (99%). 15 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on November 14?

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 1.2¢ · $37 held · ended Nov 14

Yes99¢No1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$37.37

Combined PnL

-$82.25

Smart Money Entry

27.1¢ → 1.2¢

-96% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$26.21

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$80.9

Yes1 trader

Total Value$11.15

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$1.35

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Noavg 58¢	$120.95	$16.69	-$104.26	54% 1111-942 (2053)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Yesavg 93¢	$12.5	$11.15	-$1.35	61% 783-498 (1281)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.6	$2.46	+$1.86	43% 5116-6764 (11880)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Noavg 31¢	$12.79	$1.28	-$2.96	41% 714-1032 (1746)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 10.8¢	$3.87	$1.01	-$2.35	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 1.6¢	$0.3	$0.75	+$0.45	49% 805-834 (1639)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$1.28	$0.71	-$0.57	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.25	$0.59	+$0.33	51% 857-817 (1674)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 1¢	$0.97	$0.58	-$0.32	65% 4336-2356 (6692)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 1.6¢	$0.16	$0.41	+$0.25	52% 818-756 (1574)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 1.6¢	$0.16	$0.41	+$0.25	58% 773-558 (1331)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Noavg 1.7¢	$1.71	$0.31	+$26.45	28% 3219-8167 (11386)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.13	$0.29	+$0.16	50% 770-766 (1536)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.41	$0.26	-$0.15	57% 753-558 (1311)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$0.41	$0.25	-$0.15	49% 834-864 (1698)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 1.8¢	$0.09	$0.21	+$0.12	46% 1146-1345 (2491)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Invested

$120.95

Value

$16.69

PnL

-$104.26

Record

54%

1111-942 (2053)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.5

Value

$11.15

PnL

-$1.35

Record

61%

783-498 (1281)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.6

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$1.86

Record

43%

5116-6764 (11880)

241532532432CTR<$100

Invested

$12.79

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$2.96

Record

41%

714-1032 (1746)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.87

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$2.35

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

49%

805-834 (1639)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$1.28

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$0.57

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

$0.59

PnL

+$0.33

Record

51%

857-817 (1674)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.32

Record

65%

4336-2356 (6692)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.25

Record

52%

818-756 (1574)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.25

Record

58%

773-558 (1331)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$26.45

Record

28%

3219-8167 (11386)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.13

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

770-766 (1536)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.15

Record

57%

753-558 (1311)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

834-864 (1698)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.12

Record

46%

1146-1345 (2491)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 99%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.3%

1.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4233.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

4333.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.