Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on November 12?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 89¢ · $122 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$122.33
-$2.9
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $47.13 | $43.59 | -$3.54 | 53% 5821-5182 (11003) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $41.28 | $40.53 | -$0.75 | 68% 2107-991 (3098) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $19.3 | $14.05 | -$0.51 | 55% 683-554 (1237) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.7¢ | $10.85 | $12.97 | +$2.12 | 34% 356-690 (1046) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $5.48 | $5.32 | -$0.16 | 77% 618-184 (802) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 90.1¢ | $4.6 | $4.56 | -$0.04 | 26% 864-2483 (3347) |
D7 0xd717...3b85<$100 | Noavg 90.7¢ | $1.33 | $1.31 | -$0.02 | — |
Invested
$47.13
Value
$43.59
PnL
-$3.54
Record
53%
5821-5182 (11003)
Invested
$41.28
Value
$40.53
PnL
-$0.75
Record
68%
2107-991 (3098)
Invested
$19.3
Value
$14.05
PnL
-$0.51
Record
55%
683-554 (1237)
Invested
$10.85
Value
$12.97
PnL
+$2.12
Record
34%
356-690 (1046)
Invested
$5.48
Value
$5.32
PnL
-$0.16
Record
77%
618-184 (802)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.56
PnL
-$0.04
Record
26%
864-2483 (3347)
Invested
$1.33
Value
$1.31
PnL
-$0.02
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.