Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on November 12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 59¢ · $179 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$178.7
-$11.2
69.7¢ → 59¢
-15% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 72¢ | $104.83 | $99.02 | -$5.81 | 68% 2064-954 (3018) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 67.1¢ | $32.9 | $33.32 | +$0.42 | 32% 290-625 (915) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 68.2¢ | $36.89 | $31.9 | -$4.99 | 53% 5667-5092 (10759) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $5.24 | $5.75 | +$0.51 | 80% 562-144 (706) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70.6¢ | $11.4 | $4.49 | -$1.25 | 54% 563-474 (1037) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $4.3 | $4.23 | -$0.07 | 45% 378-468 (846) |
Invested
$104.83
Value
$99.02
PnL
-$5.81
Record
68%
2064-954 (3018)
Invested
$32.9
Value
$33.32
PnL
+$0.42
Record
32%
290-625 (915)
Invested
$36.89
Value
$31.9
PnL
-$4.99
Record
53%
5667-5092 (10759)
Invested
$5.24
Value
$5.75
PnL
+$0.51
Record
80%
562-144 (706)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$4.49
PnL
-$1.25
Record
54%
563-474 (1037)
Invested
$4.3
Value
$4.23
PnL
-$0.07
Record
45%
378-468 (846)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.