Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on November 12?

14 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 54¢ · $257 held · ends Nov 12

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$257.03

Combined PnL

$30.75

Smart Money Entry

55.8¢ → 54¢

-3% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$106.16

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$29.09

No14 traders

Total Value$150.87

Total Shares256

Combined PnL+$1.67

Yes — 7%No — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 33.8¢	$77.07	$106.16	+$29.09	61% 1153-751 (1904)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 53.8¢	$40.35	$42.37	+$2.02	17% 69-331 (400)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 58¢	$22.67	$22.67	-$0.01	53% 5845-5202 (11047)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 58.4¢	$17.11	$16.67	-$0.43	77% 626-189 (815)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$26.85	$16.63	-$0.72	55% 699-561 (1260)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 55.5¢	$14.76	$15.03	+$0.27	39% 3388-5407 (8795)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$9.29	$9.65	+$0.36	52% 448-408 (856)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 54.4¢	$7.21	$7.49	+$0.28	46% 475-552 (1027)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 56¢	$5.69	$5.75	+$0.05	—
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.7	$2.93	+$0.23	47% 496-559 (1055)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.37	$2.88	-$0.48	18% 85-376 (461)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 55¢	$2.78	$2.86	+$0.08	48% 482-512 (994)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$5.49	$2.72	-$0.03	—
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 58¢	$1.9	$1.9	+$0	46% 49-58 (107)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 56¢	$1.27	$1.32	+$0.05	26% 84-244 (328)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$77.07

Value

$106.16

PnL

+$29.09

Record

61%

1153-751 (1904)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$40.35

Value

$42.37

PnL

+$2.02

Record

17%

69-331 (400)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$22.67

Value

$22.67

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

5845-5202 (11047)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$17.11

Value

$16.67

PnL

-$0.43

Record

77%

626-189 (815)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.85

Value

$16.63

PnL

-$0.72

Record

55%

699-561 (1260)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$14.76

Value

$15.03

PnL

+$0.27

Record

39%

3388-5407 (8795)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$9.29

Value

$9.65

PnL

+$0.36

Record

52%

448-408 (856)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.21

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.28

Record

46%

475-552 (1027)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.05

Record

—

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.93

PnL

+$0.23

Record

47%

496-559 (1055)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$3.37

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.48

Record

18%

85-376 (461)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

482-512 (994)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.49

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$0.03

Record

—

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.9

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

49-58 (107)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$1.27

Value

$1.32

PnL

+$0.05

Record

26%

84-244 (328)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 15 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+33 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.2%

54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$77.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

177.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.