Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on November 12?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 21¢ · $86 held · ends Nov 12

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$86.44

Combined PnL

$12.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$54.56

Total Shares265

Combined PnL+$10.93

No2 traders

Total Value$31.89

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$1.9

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 17.4¢	$37.65	$45.5	+$7.85	68% 2063-953 (3016)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 76¢	$25.89	$27.94	+$2.05	53% 5656-5081 (10737)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.2	$4.2	+$1	31% 285-621 (906)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82¢	$4.1	$3.95	-$0.15	80% 558-142 (700)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3.89	$3.92	+$0.03	61% 1144-746 (1890)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$5.25	$0.94	+$2.05	54% 553-469 (1022)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.65

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$7.85

Record

68%

2063-953 (3016)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$25.89

Value

$27.94

PnL

+$2.05

Record

53%

5656-5081 (10737)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1

Record

31%

285-621 (906)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$4.1

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.15

Record

80%

558-142 (700)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$3.92

PnL

+$0.03

Record

61%

1144-746 (1890)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.25

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$2.05

Record

54%

553-469 (1022)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.