Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on November 12?
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $236 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 100%
$235.76
$0.28
99¢ → 99¢
+0% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 50%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $74.47 | $74.21 | -$0.26 | 26% 84-244 (328) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $53.07 | $53.75 | +$0.67 | 53% 5845-5202 (11047) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $34.2 | $34.19 | -$0.02 | 46% 475-552 (1027) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $27.38 | $27.37 | -$0.01 | 52% 448-408 (856) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $26.44 | $26.32 | -$0.12 | 39% 3388-5407 (8795) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.15 | $5.13 | -$0.03 | 51% 464-451 (915) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $5.05 | $5.07 | +$0.02 | 28% 112-285 (397) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $28.32 | $5.03 | -$0.02 | 48% 482-512 (994) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $3.2 | $3.25 | +$0.05 | — |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $1.46 | $1.45 | -$0 | 47% 496-559 (1055) |
Invested
$74.47
Value
$74.21
PnL
-$0.26
Record
26%
84-244 (328)
Invested
$53.07
Value
$53.75
PnL
+$0.67
Record
53%
5845-5202 (11047)
Invested
$34.2
Value
$34.19
PnL
-$0.02
Record
46%
475-552 (1027)
Invested
$27.38
Value
$27.37
PnL
-$0.01
Record
52%
448-408 (856)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$26.44
Value
$26.32
PnL
-$0.12
Record
39%
3388-5407 (8795)
Invested
$5.15
Value
$5.13
PnL
-$0.03
Record
51%
464-451 (915)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$0.02
Record
28%
112-285 (397)
Invested
$28.32
Value
$5.03
PnL
-$0.02
Record
48%
482-512 (994)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$3.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
—
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
496-559 (1055)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
quietparcel
No — $74.21
cigarettes
No — $53.75
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $34.19
0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293
No — $27.37
Lucerys
No — $26.32
0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702
No — $5.13
godblessme2026
No — $5.07
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $5.03
0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354
No — $3.25
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $1.45