Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on November 12?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$149.52
$0.03
99.8¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $74.85 | $74.85 | +$0 | 18% 85-376 (461) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $26.57 | $26.55 | -$0.03 | 39% 3388-5407 (8795) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $14.01 | $14.06 | +$0.04 | 53% 5845-5202 (11047) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $10.37 | $10.39 | +$0.02 | 43% 791-1038 (1829) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $8.43 | $8.43 | +$0 | 48% 482-512 (994) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.1 | $5.1 | -$0.01 | 46% 475-552 (1027) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.09 | $5.09 | +$0 | 27% 943-2516 (3459) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.05 | $5.05 | -$0.01 | 47% 496-559 (1055) |
Invested
$74.85
Value
$74.85
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
85-376 (461)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$26.57
Value
$26.55
PnL
-$0.03
Record
39%
3388-5407 (8795)
Invested
$14.01
Value
$14.06
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5845-5202 (11047)
Invested
$10.37
Value
$10.39
PnL
+$0.02
Record
43%
791-1038 (1829)
Invested
$8.43
Value
$8.43
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
482-512 (994)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.1
PnL
-$0.01
Record
46%
475-552 (1027)
Invested
$5.09
Value
$5.09
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
943-2516 (3459)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
496-559 (1055)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
smallreceipt
No — $74.85
Lucerys
No — $26.55
cigarettes
No — $14.06
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $10.39
0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023
No — $8.43
0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579
No — $5.1
northdrawer
No — $5.09
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $5.05